While many people are now well aware of this year’s Super El Niño and how it has brought us some particularly wild storms, one major question remains. Will it bring snow this Christmas? 

This year’s El Niño event, which has now become supercharged, has brought extreme weather conditions across the world, likely playing a role in the recent Storm Austen and Storm Boelo. 

Now, experts have said that alongside a polar vortex, there is a chance it will bring heavy snowfall to the UK and Ireland this Christmas. 

People looking at the snow at Lough Bray Upper on Powerscourt Mountain in Co Wicklow. Pic: Niall Carson/PA Wire
Experts have said that alongside a polar vortex, there is a chance El Niño will bring heavy snowfall to the UK and Ireland. Pic: Niall Carson/PA Wire

What is an El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate event that occurs every two to seven years, shifting weather patterns across the globe. While this can bring drought to some regions it can also deliver heavy flooding in others. 

This year’s event has not only shaped up to be one of the biggest on record but is forecasted to peak around December. 

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said the event is ‘firmly established and strengthening rapidly’ with a 100% likelihood of it lasting until February 2027. 

While an El Niño event doesn’t necessarily mean snow, it comes as a polar vortex forms roughly 16- 48 km above the Earth. 

El Nino
El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years. The ENSO affects weather systems across the world, bringing extreme weather such as floods and droughts. El Nino generally causes drier conditions in Australia and South-East Asia, and wetter and warmer conditions in the Americas.

What is a polar vortex?

A polar vortex forms when the air high above the North Pole becomes extremely cold and contrasts with warmer air further south, driving stratospheric winds. 

This typically encourages a strong polar jet stream, bringing mild air from the Atlantic into Ireland. If this influences our jet stream, it often causes some of the coldest weather conditions of the year. 

While neither the polar vortex nor El Niño means definite snow by themselves, together they could possibly bring a traditional White Christmas. 

Polar
A polar vortex forms when the air high above the North Pole becomes extremely cold and contrasts with warmer air further south, driving stratospheric winds. Pic: NOAA via Getty Images

A perfect storm

As winter moves in, the waves of energy released by El Niño could move upward and disrupt the polar vortex, heightening the chance of ice and snow. 

Something similar occurred during the ‘Big Freeze’ in 2009 and 2010, bringing one of the coldest winters in three decades. 

However, the evidence doesn’t point towards any certainty of snow or ice with 2006 and 2007, also El Niño winters, being unseasonably warm, according to the BBC. 

Uncertain forecasts

Forecasters have stressed that there is no chance of significant cold or snow in the near future, and as for December, it remains too far away to say for sure. 

A WMO spokesman said: ‘El Niño will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December. It is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and floods in different regions.’ 

Meanwhile, Met Éireann has warned that in the near future Ireland still faces greater chances of wetter and windier weather as winter blows in.