Seán McCárthaigh A sharp increase in excess deaths in Ireland in December 2022 resulted in the highest excess mortality rate in the Republic since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic almost three years ago, according to new EU figures. The latest data on the extra number of recorded deaths above historical averages shows the State had the fourth-highest rate of excess mortality among the 27 EU member states in December. The data revealed there were 25.4 per cent more deaths in the Republic in December compared to the average number of deaths for the same month each year between 2016 and 2019. It represented the highest monthly rate of excess mortality in the State since the start of the pandemic in April 2020 when it reached 38 per cent and also showed a sharp increase on November's figures when it was 15.5 per cent. The figures, compiled by the European Commission, provide a general measure of the impact of a health crisis on mortality rates by counting all deaths regardless of their cause. Only Germany (+37.3 per cent), Austria (+27.4 per cent) and Slovenia (+25.9 per cent) had higher excess mortality rates than Ireland, while average increaser across the EU was 19 per cent - the highest recorded average value during 2022. However, the latest EU figures also show wide variation in excess mortality rates, with Romania and Bulgaria recording levels below normal conditions, while Hungary, Luxembourg, Spain and Malta all had rates less than half the EU average. According to the European Commission, the major peaks in excess death in the EU over the past few years have largely coincided with the Covid pandemic. These peaks were recorded in April 2020 (+25 per cent), November 2020 (+40 per cent), April 2021 (+21 per cent) and November 2021 (+27 per cent). It pointed out that a sharp rise in the excess mortality rate last July was possibly due to the heatwaves that affected parts of Europe.

'Interpret with caution'

Apart from the start of the pandemic in 2020, Ireland’s excess mortality rate was below the EU average until March 2022. Over the past 12 months, however, it has stayed above the EU average apart from last July. In response to a parliamentary question earlier this month on the number of excess deaths in Ireland, Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly said provisional figures showed there had been an excess of deaths from pneumonia and influenza over a three-week period between December and January, as well as an increase in all deaths among 75-84 year-olds in the last two weeks of December. However, Mr Donnelly said the estimates of excess mortality rates for recent weeks were “reported with some uncertainty and should be interpreted with caution”. The Minister said the Department of Health and the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) actively monitor excess mortality rates to assess the impact of seasonal influenza, pandemics and other threats to public health. Mr Donnelly said the HPSC anticipated there would be additional excess mortality for the 2022/2023 winter period over at least four to five weeks between December and January. He noted that excess mortality rates have also been observed during previous periods when flu viruses had circulated at high levels in the State and during certain periods of the Covid pandemic. “Influenza activity was at very high levels in Ireland during December 2022 and early-mid January 2023, with a high number of influenza hospitalisations reported,” Mr Donnelly said. “Other important factors that may impact excess mortality include the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, circulation of other respiratory viruses, impacts of cold weather, an ageing population, health-seeking behaviour and access to healthcare,” he added.