By Damien Tiernan

“Welcome to the Politics of Geography” said a learned high-ranking Waterford County Council official not so long ago.

He was trying to explain to a new colleague ‘how things work’ in the Deise.

There are fab factors which unite this wonderfully wicked and alliterating crucial county – and there are hobgoblins which burrow into the consciousness of people and mutter ‘they’re different up there’ or ‘they’re a bit odd down there’.

Even the ‘up to Dungarvan’ or ‘down to Waterford’ phraseology inspires passionate debate with texters to Deise Today or auld lads at Junior B GAA matches.

The Eastern GAA Board of Waterford GAA held its recent annual Convention in Portlaw.

It’s celebrating 100 years of existence! Congrats to them.

The Western Board is equally proud of its work over the decades.

Delegates from both boards meet and work together for the betterment of GAA overall in the County Board; they sell Deise Club Draw tickets; they’ll promote the second ‘Win a House’ draw; they get on well.

They’ll talk about the county being united; about underage structures being united; about how the old attitudes days are gone; about us all being in this together.

But…but…but…

Some in the west will grumble about the amount of money going into develop Walsh Park in the city; in the east might they’ll exclaim the a snarly ‘f-sake’ about finals being played in Fraher Field in Dungarvan; teams will complain about what parish a referee is from; administrators will recall a chap ‘on the other side’ as being ‘just like his father’ in his pretend, rational dialectical analysis of why a player has got a heavy ban.

It's only 10 years ago that the official east/west divide in local government was done away with.

(Hello Big Phil?)

It makes sense, they say.

Who are ‘THEY’?

THEY are the experts that used to be on the Gay Byrne radio show that your mother would quote, nodding knowingly as she does, when you got home from school.

Sure it’s only a small county…Waterford Local Radio has the second smallest franchise in the country (I’ll tell you which has the smallest as you won’t guess in time….Clare FM).

But like the Banner, we punch above our weight – and we will win another senior hurling All Ireland sooooooooon……..hmmmmmmmmmm…..

Yes!!!

Yes!!!

It makes sense that Roanmore and Clashmore and united in spirit and joy and housing allocations and the way you look (physically and proverbially).

Yes!!!

Haven’t we the Greenway, the N25, the one aim, the same aspirations, a united political outlook?

In the middle, Lemybrien, the Comeraghs, Crotty’s bar, the sheep, the Mitchells versus Kilrossanty…like Mahon falls, I could go on.

And then Tramore – a people and a place in a parallel universe of its own. No one REALLY knows what way they are going to vote or how they surf the wave or how they make their sourdough bread sooooooo good.

A (not-funny) joke in the city is when you tell someone ‘you knows nawwthing as you’ve never been west of Butlerstown’.  How many people from Ferrybank have been to Touraneena?  Do Ballysaggartt people care about the North Quays?

Many people from the west of the county fly out of Cork, they shop in Cork, they like Cork (secretly).  They might not really care too much about Waterford airport.

Many from the city and the east – where 70% of the population live – care passionately about the airport story.  (They probably feel the same in Tramore but there are not enough psychological studies done on the inhabitants to confirm dating or voting intentions there!)

And of course politics can get very, very local…we won’t even start with the Abbeyside folk saying they are the ‘real Dungarvan’ people.

A FEW FACTS: two divisional GAA boards; two Chamber of Commerces (one west, one east); one county town (Dungarvan), one city (Ireland’s oldest); two GAA county grounds (one west, one east); there were two Glass factories (one west, one east);…and I could go on.

And then you have people that give out: “We gets nawwwwthing in Waterfurrrd!”

When it snowed heavily a few years ago in other parts of the country, a normally reasonable listener took the time to phone WLR reception to complain with the utmost sincerity and logic: “they gets everything everywhere else, we don’t even gets some snow here.”

We don’t have time here to go through the magnificent history of this so-called Gentle County.

We don’t have time to outline everything that Waterford HAS got in the past 10 years – or things it hasn’t got.

We don’t have time to talk about Mount Sion going hell for leather against Ballygunner and vice versa but when they meet in Costa del Sol they are the best of friends.

When you take out one of your old Waterford Crystal glasses on the special shelf in the good room and fill it exactly half way – what do you say?

Candidates have shoes worn down scuttling across the county trying to persuade people to look at it one way rather than the other.

Some want to say they will represent the entire county; some are playing the local card.

It’s very simple: whatever four are most successful in these two basic human instincts of politics will get elected  - the politics of geography and the politics of parity.

Can they convince enough voters that the outgoing government TDs and reps have done a good job, are doing their best and are the best people to trust to continue this journey?

Can others convince enough voters that Waterford is still not getting its fair share of investment, of money, of love from Dublin?

Can some convince enough voters that they should have a TD in ‘their’ area? And what does that mean? How do we define local?

A few more important facts: there are 8,248 new voters registered in Waterford since the last General Election in 2020 (a ten percent increase).

This brings the electorate to 93,226 – the largest number of people entitled to vote in this county in the history of the State.

A candidate will be deemed to be elected if he or she reaches what is known as the ‘quota’ – a certain amount of votes cast on the day.

The quota the last time was 10,752.

With more people expected to vote, the quota in Waterford (and elsewhere) is expected to be higher – probably over 11,000 and maybe up to 11,500 – but that figure will only be known on the count day.

Some candidates may well be elected (as Roy would say ‘at the end of the day’) without reaching the quota.

There are so many questions which will only be answered on Saturday – what percentage of first preferences will each candidate get? Where will the transfers go? Who is going to be more ‘transfer friendly’ than another?  Has a person done better or worse than expected?

My prediction?  I called it correctly last time round in terms of who was elected and in what order.  This time – I genuinely (as Miriam would say!) can’t call it.

It’s due to rain a lot tomorrow.  The turnout was 64% in Waterford last time.  What happens if it’s lower this time round?

I think it’s going to be very close with some candidates bunched together.  I think transfers could go all over the place. I think anybody who says they KNOW what’s going to happen is just guessing.  But isn’t that what predictions are? Educated guesses.

So my educated guess is it’s too tight to call, there are too many imponderables, too many curveballs, too many voters with local and national and geographic and I’m alright Jack and parity of esteem views milling around in their heads they might only really make their mind up when they are in the polling station pencil in hand.

The main thing is if you have a vote, use it, we are spoiled in this country to have such a wonderful democracy.  Cherish it – whether you are from up there or God forbid down that way.